The signal and the noise : the art and science of prediction

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don't is a 2012 book by Nate Silver detailing the art of using probability and statistics as applied to real-world circumstances. The book includes case studies from baseball, elections, climate change, the 2008 financial crisis, poker and weather forecasting. The book was the recipient of the 2013 Phi Beta Kappa Society book award in science. It has also been translated into several languages.